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Synopsis
of
Global Early Warning System (GEWS) and Global University System (GUS)
Takeshi
Utsumi, Ph.D.
Chairman
GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association in
the U.S.A. (GLOSAS/USA)
(May 1, 2013)
The highly interconnected and coupled nature of energy, healthcare, food
security, natural resource management and sustainable economic growth have in
the past stymied the effectiveness of traditional international development
efforts focused on each of these areas in isolation. The aim of this combined
research and education initiative is to engage national and international
stakeholders in jointly developing customized national sustainability
simulation models that can explore the comparative effectiveness of development
interventions from a systems perspective.
The GLOBAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (GEWS) is a globally distributed
computer simulation system to help decision makers construct a decision-support
system to search for positive sum/win-win alternatives to conflict and war. The
simulation models of this network will address economic, social, and environmental
issues in various countries, all connected through broadband Internet for
conducting the following two-tier system: 1) one for assisting decision makers
in developing and using a globally distributed decision support system for
wide-ranging policy analysis and evaluation, seeking positive sum/win-win
alternatives to crisis, conflict and war; and 2) the other for training young
bureaucrats and aspiring decision makers for understanding world phenomena
through rational analysis and critical thinking for implementing effective
strategies managing energy, environmental sustainability, and national
prosperity. This may foster the crucial importance of cooperation as they seek
effective advocacy, informed policy, public understanding and participation,
and concrete community development. They may learn to negotiate, manage crises,
and resolve conflicts by relying on facts and figures, rather than exclusively
upon insights, habits or traditions. This training is for leadership skills,
conflict resolution and management, negotiation around scarce resources,
increasing population and climate changes.
Problems: Global simulation models of
socio-economic-energy-environmental systems are currently constructed and
executed as aggregating several or all countries without any considerations of
national boundaries and hence without paying any considerations to the
uniqueness of those individual countries. The models are also constructed
without participation of knowledgeable experts of participating countries, hence
lacking vital necessity of faithfully simulating not only the intricacies of
those countries, but also the important interrelationship among the simulating
countries to others. This is the direct violation of the most basic iron rule
of simulation. Subsequently, the most of current simulation projects lack
accuracies, in spite of huge expenditures for highly intellectual manpower with
large monetary expenses for computing, information and telecommunication
facilities. Further, it is an urgent need to promote rational and
scientific approach to the policy analysis and evaluation basing on the facts
and figures, among government bureaucrats and future leaders, especially on
confrontation prone issues. Lastly, they need to know how to live
peacefully with their neighbors with thorough knowledge on their
inter-relationships.
There is a need for superior results compared with the aggregated approach, as
(1) letting knowledgeable experts in the country autonomously constructing and
maintaining their models thus improving the accuracy of the models, (2)
realizing the simulation basing on the facts and figures with insertion of
real-time data into the simulation models, (3) utilizing inexpensive Beowulf
mini-supercomputer approach with a cluster of laptops, thus avoiding a large
foot-print and extensive electrical power usage in million dollars/year range
for large supercomputer, and (4) preserving the security of data within their
own national boundaries, if necessary.
System: Simulation models of GEWS in each country will be interlinked
with the use of GLOSAS/USAÕs procedure (US Patent-Pending #61/764,843 –
see Figure 1 below). This is the first step for constructing such a global
simulation model in a global scale virtual supercomputer in a globally distributed
simulation mode through global broadband Internet. This is to be made firstly
around the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) along the west
coast of Africa, and then Nile river basin countries in east Africa, and then
all of other countries of the African Union, and ultimately entire world, thus
forming the electronic United Nations.
Figure 1: Inter-Linkage Mechanism For Distributed Simulation Models With Human
Intervention
(US Patent Pending #61/764,843) <http://tinyurl.com/d4oj9py>
Intellectual Merit: The most significant contribution of this project is
its transformational use of stakeholder-crafted models for developing
sustainable development strategies, leveraging an unprecedented critical mass
of global expertise for national level problem-solving.
The multi-disciplinary multi-institutional project team consists of academics
and researchers with substantial experience in using modeling and simulation
for development objectives, supported by the Millennium Institute and the
ECOWAS. The development of a global network of federated and standardized
systems models of national sustainable development that can collect and share
data on complex energy, healthcare, food security and natural resource
management problems is a unique and unprecedented effort that could transform
the effectiveness of development efforts and foster global collaboration in
solving ÒwickedÓ problems collectively.
GEWS represents substantial paradigm shifts, including: (1) The combined use of
qualitative (normative) gaming and quantitative (model-based) simulation based
on facts and figures rather than exclusively upon insights, habits or traditions,
transforming adversaries into collaborators for confrontation prone problems in
globally education and training; (2) The development of global ÒvirtualÓ
supercomputer capacity with globally distributed simulation models, which would
become a single global model linked through Internet; (3) A hands-on
experiential learning apparatus (i.e., simulator/trainer) for government
bureaucrats and future leaders for their capacity building on policy analysis,
evaluation, with hands-on experiential learning in global collaborative
fashion, thus increasing comradeship.
Broader Impacts: This initiative is unique in that it integrates
advances in understanding complex development problems through modeling and
simulation with training and educating young decision-makers from developing
nations in systems thinking for sustainable development. Given its developing
country focus and gender empowerment objective, the initiative will both engage
and serve underrepresented population groups and potentially enhance broader
societal welfare within the target countries. It also creates an infrastructure
for building an unprecedented global network of academics, decision-makers and
practitioners who can share knowledge, expertise and data as well as the
cyber-infrastructure necessary to allow large-scale education and training of
students and citizens across the globe in sustainable development strategies
through gaming and simulation.
African colleagues will form teams on many subjects planning for 5-year
periods, which plans will be submitted for Japanese ODA fund. The GEWS will be
suited for fostering camaraderie around the globe, leading to the next stage of
human development as fostering global collaborative creativity.
The GLOBAL UNIVERSITY SYSTEM (GUS) (a UNESCO program initiated with
funds from the World Bank and the NSF) is a companion global alliance of major
universities that will support GEWS in finding, collecting, model building, and
processing data. The GUS in participating countries will also provide intercultural
and peacekeeping courses in addition to community development. The GUS brings
technology to the agenda of global education as launching a trans-cultural,
global-wide initiative (using modern techniques of communication) to promote
the kinds of global education that will advance peace, justice, understanding,
and human wisdom.
COLLABORATION: The GEWS projects cooperate with the GLORIAD and ÒAfrica
Coast to Europe (ACE)Ó ultra high-speed optical fiber submarine cable along the
west coast of Africa of Baharicom Development
Company. GUS in participating countries will
develop simulation models with the guidance from the Millennium Institute, a world-renowned think tank specialized on system
dynamic modeling. Those models will be interlinked through ACE/GLORIAD with the
guidance from the GLOSAS/USA.
COLLABORATORS: Baharicom Development Co.,
Ltd.; Global Ring Network for Advanced Applications Development (GLORIAD); GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association in the
U.S.A. (GLOSAS/USA); Columbia University/School of International and Public
Affairs (SIPA); Millennium Institute; Polytechnic Institute of New York
University; Stevens Institute of Technology. Schools participating in GEWS/GUS
are numerous.
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Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D., P.E., Chairman
GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association in
the U.S.A. (GLOSAS/USA)
Laureate of Lord Perry Award for Excellence in Distance Education
Founder and V.P. for Technology and Coordination of Global University System
(GUS)
43-23 Colden Street, #9L, Flushing, NY 11355-5913, U.S.A.
Tel: 718-939-0928; Cel: 646-589-1730; Skype: utsumi
Email: [email protected],
Web: http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/
U.S./IRS Employer ID: 11-2999676 <http://tinyurl.com/534gxc>
New York State Tax Exempt ID: 217837 <http://tinyurl.com/47wqbo>
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