<<20130505>> Archived distributions can be retrieved at; <http://tinyurl.com/azg3eyl <http://tinyurl.com/azg3eyl> >. This archive includes a html version of this list distribution and its MS/WORD version with its filename as “year-month-date.doc.” You can also access all of its attachments, if any.

Hervé Lohoues, Ph.D. <wlmailhtml:hlohoues@hotmail.com>

Hans Rudolf Herren, Ph.D. <wlmailhtml:hh@millennium-institute.org>

Greg Cole, Ph.D. <[email protected]>

Weishuang Qu, Dr. <[email protected]>

References:

(a) Takeshi Utsumi, GLOSAS/USA
"Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG)"
http://tinyurl.com/k2c7a

The above paper is in the following book;
(b) Global Peace Through The Global University System
Tapio Varis - Takeshi Utsumi - William Klemm (Eds.)
The entire contents of this book can be retrieved at;
http://tinyurl.com/kofpf

In the bottom line of this page, you can find the following;
(c) “Interview with Takeshi Utsumi” by Parker Rossman
http://tinyurl.com/fnxxt

(d) First ICCC at Hilton Hotel in Washington DC in October 1972
<http://tinyurl.com/93m78wk>

(e) (20100925) "Law of Sea" as an Example of Computer Mediated Negotiation for Prevention of Conflicts <http://tinyurl.com/2g3teej>

(f) Straus, D. B., et al; “Computer-Assisted Negotiations: A Case History from the Law of the Sea Negotiations and Speculation Regarding Future Uses”
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Volume 426, pp 234 to 265, November 1, 1984
(html file, 70 KB -- http://tinyurl.com/2e44z4j),
(pdf file, 21.6 MB -- http://tinyurl.com/2vyx4f9)

(g) (07/20/08) (1) Mtg at Columbia University on July 15th and (2) GCEPG Project to meet with Al Gore's bold vision
http://tinyurl.com/56wk74

(h) The Global Early Warning System (GEWS) with The Global University System (GUS): Their Use Within ECOWAS Countries; A Priority Agenda Item of the First GEWS/GUS Planning Workshop at School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA), Columbia University, and The Stevens Institute of Technology (August 2, 2012)
<http://tinyurl.com/bmo9ljj>

Dear Herve:

(1) Many thanks for your msg (ATTACHMENT II below).

Dear Hans:

(2) Many thanks also for your support msg (ATTACHMENT I below).

Dear Herve:

(3) Very glad to know that you had a good contact with Daniel in Benin, though you could not join in our 4/18th webcam event.

I plan to rehearse the same webcam in the coming few weeks, since I would like to do the same during the planning workshop of our GEWS project which is to be held at the office of GLORIAD at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville (UTK) -- within 2 month after obtaining the NSF grant.

(4) BTW, Greg Cole of GLORIAD was very busy with his urgent important task till the end of April, so that I sent him the next-to-final version of our grant application to the NSF for this workshop on April 29th. I expect his submitting it within a few weeks from now.

I would then expect to have this 5-day workshop around early fall — after 4 months from now (with 2 month for the NSF’s processing plus 2 month for the GEWS/GLORIAD’s preparation) — this is to answer your question #2.

Dear Greg:
Pls submit our grant application to the NSF at your earliest convenience, since many colleagues are now looking forward to this planning workshop. Many thanks in advance.

(5) Very glad to know that your ECOWAS has a section which handles Early Warning.

Sorry to say that we don’t know anyone of this section yet. Pls feel free to introduce us to them (or vice versa).

(6) BTW, our GEWS was evolved from the GCEPG project (Reference (a) above), which paper was presented at the First International Conference on Computer Communication (ICCC) at Hilton Hotel in Washington DC in October 1972 (Reference (d) above), at which time I saw the demo of DARPANET, which was the very first predecessor of Internet. This encounter with it changed my life to devote myself on its worldwide expansion.

It was the time of the first Oil-Shock so that our colleagues at the Mitsubishi Chemical Company in Tokyo depicted the US/Japan conflict on grabbing oil from the middle east, affecting on the company’s ethylene production — this was done in a “pseudo” gaming fashion — here “pseudo” means that a Japanese group acted as if Americans.

(7) GLOSAS/USA then conducted a demonstration of global-scale peace gaming/simulation at the conference on "Crisis Management and Conflict Resolution" that was organized by the World Future Society (WFS) at Shelaton Hotel in New York City in July of 1986.

An economist of ECOSOC at the United Nations wrote a crisis scenario on the U.S./Japan trade and economic issue in relation to the Second Oil Shock. Prominent American economists countered with Japanese team in Tokyo for three night events. It was one of the largest and perhaps the most successful demonstration of global gaming/simulation so far. Nearly 1,500 people took part in New York, Tokyo, Honolulu, and at the World's Fair in Vancouver, B.C. — see the last part of the Reference (c) above.

Mr. Don Straus, former President of American Arbitration Association, was there and suggested a proposition, i.e., Japan spent about 3 % of GDP for military and the US 6 % around that time, then why not switch the percentage between the two countries. Prof. Onishi took this proposed parameter setting and ran his FUGI model in a Hitachi super computer in Tokyo and got the result that the trade in-balance between the two countries would become even only if both countries would work together cooperatively rather than competitively. This clearly indicated the cost and dilemma of American's nuclear umbrella protecting Japan's economic prosperity, thus threatening American's economic prosperity.

Mr. Straus (*) was very much impressed with the gaming/simulation because of his previous experience with the “Law of the Sea” project of the United Nations which achieved consensus of 150 countries with the help of system analysis computer program, as transforming advocacies into collaborators — see References (e) and (f) above. BTW, our GEWS is to follow their precedence in spirit.

(*) BTW, Dan Straus was related to the founder of Macy Department Store in New York City who was perished with Titanic.

(8) Dr. Qu of Millennium Institute once made his presentation about his work on the post conflict resolution gaming/simulation with people coming from Balkan countries, at the Lamont Doherty Earth Observation Lab of the Columbia University by my invitation in the summer of 2008 (Reference (g) above).

This is what Hans mentioned in ATTACHMENT I below.

(9) As mentioned in the last page of the Reference (h) above, a NSF officer suggested us the following steps in the funding process:

(a) Hold our planning workshop with the NSF’s unsolicited grant;

Greg Cole of GLORIAD at the UTK is now submitting our grant application for this as mentioned above.

(b) Apply for the NSF’s CREATIV program
(http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2012/nsf12011/nsf12011.jsp).

(c) Once we get the CREATIV program fund, we will be entitled to encourage our African colleagues to apply for the following to work with us:
NSF and USAID Jointly Launch International, Interagency PEER Program to Advance Science Collaboration With the Developing World <http://tinyurl.com/6ttzqmq>

(10) We have started to preparing our grant application for the CREATIV program with which we will have the following workshop;

(a) One-day workshop at the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) of Columbia University in Manhattan, New York City
(b) Following four days at the Stevens Institute of Technology in Hoboken, New Jersey

During the workshop at the SIPA of Columbia University, we will demonstrate our GEWS project for the combined use of the normative (role-playing) gaming with the quantitative (model-based) simulation, thus also showing the paradigm shift in the international political science field.

The former (normative gaming) has already been conducted by our colleague who was the president of Shell Development Company and who stayed in Port Harcourt in Nigeria for a dozen years or so, and a staff at the Millennium Institute indicated his willingness to work on this project as constructing necessary simulation models.

The purpose of this demo is to verify the energy propositions made by the President Obama and former Vice President Al Gore in global perspective, who proposed to replace the use of crude oil for generating electricity with green energy, i.e., solar or wind, etc. by 2030. As you know, those oil to generate electricity has to be less sulfur and mostly comes from Nigeria.

The 40% of oil export from Nigeria come to the US, and 97% of the Nigerian government revenue comes from the oil export.

When this Obama/Al Gore energy proposition will succeed, almost a half of the Nigerian government’s revenue would disappear. Even without the success of green energy, the US is expecting to become energy INDEPENDENT thanks to new massive hydraulic fracturing technology for production of shale gas, thus without necessitating to import Nigerian oil.

This is to happen by 2030 — mere 17 years from now!! Is there any remedy to cope with this devastating catastrophic future of Nigeria?

Our proposed GEWS/ECOWAS project is to analyze this future collaboratively as inter-linking socio-economic-energy-environmental simulation models of various ECOWAS countries.

(11) Pls feel free to contact me if you have any further questions.

Keep in touch.

Best, Tak

ATTACHMENT I

From: Hans R Herren <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: Request for GEWS/ECOWAS workshop at the UTK
Date: May 4, 2013 9:37:06 AM EDT
To: "Herve Lohoues" <[email protected]>
Cc: "Tak Utsumi" <[email protected]>, "Adedoyin Onasanya" <[email protected]>, "Abdoulaye Zonon" <[email protected]>, "Djedjero Akpa Paulin" <[email protected]>, "Amadou Diouf" <[email protected]>, "Guevera Yao" <[email protected]>

Dear Hervé and colleagues,

I am pleased that this project is advancing, not the least because it will help in the institutionalization of the T21 model both at Government and also university level.

There can't be enough capacity in system thinking and handling in the face of all the challenges that we are up against in the decades ahead. So I think that the GEWS project can help very well in that direction.

Also wanted to mention that we have been considering the use of T21 for both conflict prevention and post conflict situation, the latter we did already in the Balkan few years ago. Given the situation in the Sahel, I guess that the ECOWAS project could be extended to such applications and our Board Chair, Prof Ndioro Ndiaye is looking into options now.

This just to add some to Hervé's comment and give support…..

Best, Hans

ATTACHMENT II

From: "Herve Lohoues" <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: Request for GEWS/ECOWAS workshop at the UTK
Date: May 4, 2013 4:49:46 AM EDT
To: "Tak Utsumi" <[email protected]>
Cc: "Tak Utsumi" <[email protected]>, "Hans R Herren" <[email protected]>, "Adedoyin Onasanya" <[email protected]>, "Abdoulaye Zonon" <[email protected]>, "Djedjero Akpa Paulin" <[email protected]>, "Amadou Diouf" <[email protected]>, "Guevera Yao" <[email protected]>

Dear Tak,

This is to acknowledge receipt of your email and the attached proposal. Thank you.

First of all, please accept my apologies for the delay of my response to your previous emails. The last month has been pretty busy and I have been quite far from by base in Abuja.

My apologies also for not being able to attend the video conference planned on 18 April. As you know, I was leading an ECOWAS CDP mission in Cotonou where, BTW, I met Daniel and had a good discussuion about our respective activities.

Now, regarding the GEWS project, I have a couple of questions for you:

1 – I don’t know if you know that at the ECOWAS Commission there is a department in charge of Early Warning whoch takes cares of everything relating to conflict prevention in the ECOWAS Region. My question now is: is anybody of this department involved in your GEWS project? Is the GEWS liked to this type of conflict prevention?

2 – Do you have an approximate date/period for the GEWS/ECOWAS workshop? I know it is said that it could hold within 2 months after obtaining the grant from NSF.

3 – My Team and myself have a pretty tight and busy schedule this year to deliver our ECOWAS CDP Regional Document which is a top priority right now. This may keep us quite busy and not allow us to fully participate in this project.

All this said, I commend the effort on this very valuable project and assure you of my availability to be part of it if time allows it.

Thank you and God bless,

Hervé

=================================
Hervé Lohoues, PhD
Coordinator, Community Dvt Progr. (CDP)
Macroeconomic Policy Department
ECOWAS Commission, Abuja, Nigeria
Mobile: +234 705 565 5330 / +234 813 157 9061
Email: [email protected] / [email protected]

List of Disribution

Hervé Lohoues, Ph.D.
CDP Coordinator
Community Development Program (CDP)
Macroeconomic Policy Dpt
ECOWAS Commission
101 Yakubu Gowon Crescent,
Asokoro, District, PMB 401
Abuja, NIGERIA
Mobile: +234 705 56 55 330, +234 813 1579061
Email: wlmailhtml:hlohoues@hotmail.com

Hans Rudolf Herren, Ph.D.
President
Millennium Institute
1634 I St NW, Suite 300
Washington, DC 20006
cell + 1 530 867 4569
Tel 202 383 6200
Fax 202 383 6209
wlmailhtml:hansrherren@mac.com
wlmailhtml:hh@millennium-institute.org
www.millennium-institute.org
www.nourish9billion.org
http://www.biovision.ch/nc/en/home/
www.threshold21.com
http://www.biovision.ch
http://www.eduvision.or.ke
http://www.millenniuminstitute.net/

Greg Cole, Ph.D.
Principal Investigator
Global Ring Network for Advanced Applications Development (GLORIAD)
Director/Center for International Networking Initiatives (CINI)
Institute for a Secure and Sustainable Environment
311 Conference Center Bldg
University of Tennessee
Knoxville, TN 37996-4134
Cel: 865-309-5524
865‐974‐1262 – Greg’s phone.
865-974-2459
Fax: 865-974-1838
[email protected]
[email protected]
http://www.gloriad.org/
http://issue.utk.edu/cini/
http://www.gloriad.org/gloriad/team/usa/gcole.html
http://www.friends-partners.org/
http://events.internet2.edu/speakers/speakers.php?go=people&id=1495 -- bio
http://www.friendspartners.org/GLOSAS/Global_University/Global%20University%20System/Cole's%20GLORAID/GLORIAD_update.pdf
or
http://makeashorterlink.com/?B3BD61B1B
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/01/040102092834.htm
http://usinfo.state.gov/eap/Archive/2005/Apr/15-476539.html -- about GLORIAD

Funded by the US National Science Foundation, GLORIAD rings the northern hemisphere with an advanced optical Internet currently linking scientists, educators, and students in the USA, Russia, China, Korea, Canada, Netherlands, the five Nordic countries, Egypt, India, and Singapore.

Weishuang Qu, Dr.
Director of Modeling and Analysis
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Blvd, Suite 650
Arlington, VA 22201-3357
Tel: +1-703-351-5081
Fax: +1-703-841-0050
Cel: 301-873-3073
[email protected]
www.millennium-institute.org

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Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D., P.E., Chairman
GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association in the U.S.A. (GLOSAS/USA)
Laureate of Lord Perry Award for Excellence in Distance Education
Founder and V.P. for Technology and Coordination of Global University System (GUS)
43-23 Colden Street, #9L, Flushing, NY 11355-5913, U.S.A.
Tel: 718-939-0928; Cel: 646-589-1730; Skype: utsumi
Email: [email protected], Web: http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/
U.S./IRS Employer ID: 11-2999676 <http://tinyurl.com/534gxc>
New York State Tax Exempt ID: 217837 <http://tinyurl.com/47wqbo>
Google Profiles <https://profiles.google.com/takutsumi0/about>
Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/GlobalEarlyWarningSystemsgews>
List Distribution <http://tinyurl.com/2fzx23e>
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